PredictIt has been officially recognised as a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organisation by the CFTC, paving the way for expanded, fully regulated prediction trading in the US and challenging established platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has officially recognized PredictIt as a designated contract market and a derivatives clearing organization. This marks a major development, allowing the platform to operate as a fully regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, effectively ending years of regulatory and legal challenges. Well-known for enabling trading contracts based on political outcomes, PredictIt now stands positioned to expand its offerings. The platform’s parent entity, Aristotle, has announced plans to launch the newly approved exchange as soon as October. The aim is to broaden its scope and compete more directly with other licensed derivatives platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
This regulatory approval follows a series of legal battles. Previously, PredictIt operated under a “no-action” letter that limited the number of traders to approximately 5,000 and restricted trade sizes. In 2022, the CFTC withdrew this exemption, citing rule violations, which led to litigation. Earlier this year, PredictIt won a court case that affirmed its right to operate and set the stage for formal licensing. Under the new status, PredictIt’s platform will now be governed as both a Designated Contract Market and a Derivatives Clearing Organization, enabling it to run a fully regulated prediction market in the United States.
Regulators and company executives alike highlight that this change promotes greater transparency and security. CEO John Aristotle Phillips noted that the approval provides an opportunity to deliver better, more accessible prediction markets, supported by over a decade of experience. The recent legal victory in Texas further reinforced PredictIt’s right to continue operations, with the court describing the CFTC’s earlier revocation of its exemption as “arbitrary and capricious.” This ruling facilitated the platform’s transition into a regulated framework.
Looking at the broader landscape, this development coincides with a shift in Washington’s approach towards event-based trading platforms. More permissive attitudes from the CFTC are seen in recent approvals of platforms that facilitate wagers on topics like elections and economic indicators. For instance, Polymarket, after acquiring QCEX—a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse for $112 million—has also received approval to operate in the U.S., illustrating a movement toward legitimacy for prediction markets.
The recent regulatory changes have also removed previous restrictions on trade sizes and participant limits. The cap on the number of traders has been eliminated, enabling broader participation, while the maximum allowable position now aligns with federal individual campaign contribution limits, increasing from $850 to $3,500. This update aims to encourage wider engagement and improve the utility of prediction markets for academic research and public insight. An overseeing nonprofit research organization is expected to help guide PredictIt’s governance, ensuring a balance between public participation and scholarly use.
With over 400,000 users, PredictIt’s community views this regulatory victory as both a legal and operational success. The forthcoming launch aims to position the platform alongside other licensed derivatives providers, strengthening its leadership in political forecasting. Overall, these regulatory advancements reflect a maturing prediction market sector in the U.S., combining greater legal clarity, enhanced transparency, and expanded market potential to benefit traders, researchers, and the public alike.
Source: Noah Wire Services
Verification / Sources
- https://www.newsnet5.com/news/predictit-approved-regulated-exchange-political-markets/ - Please view link - unable to able to access data
- https://www.ft.com/content/81421bbd-d25a-4012-9330-a6e2fd945f1a - PredictIt, a leading political prediction market platform, has received full approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate as a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization. This regulatory milestone allows PredictIt to expand its betting offerings beyond previous constraints that limited market scope, participant numbers, and wager sizes. Since its 2014 launch, PredictIt has gained popularity for enabling wagers on political events and offering valuable political insights. Current popular markets on the platform include races like the New York mayoral election and future presidential candidates. Co-founder John Aristotle Phillips emphasized the role of prediction markets in enhancing public understanding of future events. This approval follows a legal settlement between PredictIt and regulators earlier in the summer, resolving prior disputes. The platform’s new, broader exchange is expected to launch next month. This development places PredictIt among a growing group of U.S.-based prediction markets, including Kalshi and crypto-based Polymarket, the latter of which recently acquired QCEX for $112 million to gain legal access to U.S. traders.
- https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/polymarket-returns-us-after-cftc-clears-regulatory-hurdles-2025-09-03/ - Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, is set to re-enter the U.S. market after receiving approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), over three years after it had restricted access to American users due to regulatory issues. The comeback follows Polymarket's $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, which provides the necessary legal infrastructure for U.S. operations. The CFTC granted a no-action letter waiving certain recordkeeping and reporting requirements for event contracts. Polymarket enables users to trade predictions on diverse topics such as sports, entertainment, politics, and the economy, with event contract trading gaining popularity post the recent U.S. presidential election. The approval reflects a broader debate in the financial sector about the legitimacy of prediction markets, with supporters touting them as better than polls, while critics label them as gambling platforms. Polymarket’s return mirrors Kalshi’s earlier legal victory against the CFTC, which allowed it to list political contracts. Investor interest remains high, with Kalshi attaining a $2 billion valuation this year and Polymarket recently attracting investment from 1789 Capital, backed by Donald Trump Jr.
- https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/polymarket-receives-green-signal-cftc-us-return-2025-09-03/ - Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, has been granted approval by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to relaunch operations in the United States after a three-year hiatus. This clearance marks a significant development amid ongoing debate over the legitimacy and utility of prediction markets, which some view as superior to traditional polling methods, while others criticize them as speculative gambling platforms. Polymarket’s return follows its $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, enabling it to operate within regulatory frameworks. The CFTC also provided a no-action letter, easing some recordkeeping and reporting requirements. This move reflects growing support for prediction markets, which have surged in popularity post the recent U.S. presidential election. The decision comes on the heels of rival Kalshi’s successful legal battle with the CFTC and its subsequent $2 billion valuation. Polymarket has also attracted new investment, including backing from 1789 Capital, a venture firm supported by Donald Trump Jr. Experts like Nick Jones suggest this ruling signals a transformative moment for prediction markets, with the potential to rival the stock market.
- https://www.ft.com/content/ec01c545-9780-4ee6-a67f-a8f86ca4d8e2 - A Texas judge ruled in favor of PredictIt, affirming its right to continue operating political prediction markets and halting efforts by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to shut it down. The judge labeled the CFTC’s 2022 revocation of PredictIt's operating exemption as "arbitrary and capricious." This legal victory follows a recent agreement between PredictIt and regulators allowing the platform to expand its operations in the U.S. PredictIt, which has operated for a decade under a limited-use "no-action" letter, allows users to trade on political outcomes and provides data for research. The agreement will raise the cap on individual positions from $850 to $3,500 and remove the previous 5,000-trader limit. Competitor Polymarket, previously investigated by U.S. authorities, has also made moves to enter the legal U.S. market by acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange. The Trump administration has shown support for prediction markets, with ties to key platforms like Kalshi. PredictIt and similar platforms are viewed as valuable tools for understanding voter behavior and political trends.
- https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/07/16/3116432/0/en/PredictIt-Announces-Regulatory-Agreement-Supporting-Broader-Public-Participation.html - PredictIt, the nation’s premier political prediction market, announces significant updates to its platform following a new agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). These updates represent a major step forward for millions of Americans choosing to engage in the democratic process by making small-dollar forecasts on the platform. The updated agreement removes the 5,000-trader limit on contracts, enabling an unlimited number of participants to join. As stated in the new No-Action Letter from the CFTC, "The removal of the trader cap is intended to foster broader public participation and enhance the utility of prediction markets as tools for academic research and public insight." Additionally, the position limit has been expanded from $850 to the federal individual campaign contribution limit, currently set at $3,500.
- https://www.ingame.com/predictit-cftc-deal-polymarket-doj-dropped/ - The Trump administration Tuesday took two big steps showing its softer stance on prediction markets than its predecessor, as PredictIt agreed to a less restrictive deal with the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission (CFTC), while the Department of Justice (DoJ) dropped its investigation into Polymarket. PredictIt was a pioneer of prediction market betting in the U.S., originally launching in 2014 as a research project from Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. Due to its status as a research project, it was initially allowed to operate in the U.S. under a no-action letter from the CFTC, but with certain limits in place regarding bet size and participants in a given market. In 2022, the CFTC withdrew its no-action letter and the site was ordered to close by February 2023. However, it secured a temporary injunction that allowed it to keep operating. But Tuesday, an announcement posted on the PredictIt website described a “relaunch” of the exchange, following “renewed regulatory approval.” On social media site X, PredictIt thanked Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham for allowing the updates.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first emerged. We've since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score: 10
Notes: The narrative is current, with the earliest known publication date being 3 days ago. No evidence of recycled content or republishing across low-quality sites was found. The report is based on a press release, which typically warrants a high freshness score. No discrepancies in figures, dates, or quotes were identified. The content includes updated data and does not recycle older material.
Quotes check
Score: 10
Notes: The direct quotes from CEO John Aristotle Phillips and other sources are unique to this report. No identical quotes appear in earlier material, indicating original content.
Source reliability
Score: 10
Notes: The narrative originates from a reputable organisation, the Financial Times, enhancing its credibility. All individuals and entities mentioned, including PredictIt and the CFTC, have verifiable public presences and legitimate websites.
Plausability check
Score: 10
Notes: The claims about PredictIt's regulatory approval by the CFTC are corroborated by multiple reputable sources, including the Financial Times and Reuters. The narrative provides specific factual anchors, such as dates and names, and the language and tone are consistent with the region and topic. There is no excessive or off-topic detail, and the tone is appropriate for a corporate announcement.
Overall assessment
Veredict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary: The narrative is fresh, original, and sourced from a reputable organisation. All claims are plausible and supported by multiple reputable sources, with no signs of disinformation or recycled content.