The Bank of Japan's latest survey reveals a record $85.6 trillion in exchange-traded and OTC derivatives, signalling increased activity driven by inflation worries and policy shifts, with Tokyo solidifying its role as a regional derivatives hub.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has released its latest figures from the second segment of its Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in Japan, with data as of the end of June 2025. What these numbers show is pretty striking: overall, the notional value of derivatives contracts held by major Japanese financial institutions hit about $85.6 trillion for over-the-counter (OTC) deals, and roughly $3.8 trillion for exchange-traded ones. This survey, which lines up with the BoJ’s Regular Derivatives Market Statistics, offers a very detailed breakdown—covering risk factors, currencies, counterparties, and maturities—so it provides pretty comprehensive insights into current market trends and exposures.
Now, looking at OTC derivatives, it’s clear that single currency interest rate (IR) contracts are the biggest chunk, with roughly $73.8 trillion outstanding. Foreign exchange (FX) contracts follow behind with about $10.6 trillion, and credit derivatives are at around $0.9 trillion. As for the currencies involved, the U.S. dollar leads IR contracts with $26.8 trillion, then the Japanese yen close behind at $24.3 trillion, and the euro with roughly $16.1 trillion. When it comes to FX contracts, again, the dollar dominates with about $4.9 trillion, then yen with $2.3 trillion, and euro with $1.2 trillion.
The way counterparties are spread out also tells us a lot about the market’s structure. For IR contracts, a hefty $53.7 trillion are with central counterparties (CCPs), along with $7.2 trillion with reporting dealers, and around $11 trillion with other financial institutions that don’t clear through CCPs. FX contracts, on the other hand, seem less centralized—only about $7 trillion are transacted with reporting dealers, a small $0.4 trillion through CCPs, and about $2.1 trillion with other financial institutions. As for maturities, IR contracts seem fairly evenly split—the largest chunk, $27.3 trillion, is between one and five years, another $24.9 trillion is for one year or less, and about $21.6 trillion stretches beyond five years. FX contracts mostly have shorter durations, with roughly $7.2 trillion outstanding for a year or less.
These stats are part of a much bigger picture—Japan's derivatives market is evolving rapidly, especially in recent times. The BoJ’s survey is part of a global triennial effort, coordinated with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), collecting data from over 1,100 institutions across 52 different countries. The initial turnover figures were shared back in September 2025, with the full detailed report expected by December. This sort of international collaboration makes it easier to compare trends and benchmark Japan’s role on the global stage.
Industry watchers are noticing that derivatives trading in Japan has been picking up, especially amid recent macroeconomic shifts. A survey by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) emphasizes Tokyo’s position as a key hub for derivatives activity in the Asia-Pacific region. According to the ISDA, interest rate derivatives are seeing increased activity, driven by expectations of sustained higher rates. This fits in pretty well with what BoJ data shows—huge notional amounts in IR derivatives and sharper rises in yen-rate swaps reported by the Japan Securities Clearing Corporation (JSCC). In fact, the yen interest rate swap market has seen record-breaking clearing volumes—more than ten times higher than in 2020—partly because of more international dealers jumping in, even though there are some regulatory limits on US clients clearing in Japan.
Another significant factor is Japan’s recent inflation climb and the possibility of further monetary tightening. Recent economic stats indicate core inflation hit 3.6% year-on-year by June 2025, mainly pushed up by rising food prices, and that's actually higher than what the BoJ had expected. These inflation pressures, combined with a lessening of downside growth risks, are fueling speculation that the BoJ might hike interest rates again as early as October 2025. All of this has led to more activity in interest rate and FX derivatives, as investors adjust portfolios, expecting the yen could even benefit from shifting global economic conditions.
In summary, the BoJ’s mid-2025 derivatives stats, along with broader industry insights and macroeconomic trends, give us a picture of a market that's quite substantial still, but also increasingly reactive to policy moves and global financial flows. The high volume of derivatives, the move toward tighter monetary policy, and international participation all underscore the importance of strong market infrastructure and effective risk management tools in Japan’s financial system.
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Source: Noah Wire Services
Verification / Sources
- https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/bis/deri/deri2506.htm - Please view link - unable to able to access data
- https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/bis/deri/deri2506.htm - The Bank of Japan released the results of the second part of the Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in Japan, detailing the amounts outstanding as of end-June 2025. The survey found that the notional amounts outstanding of derivatives contracts by major Japanese financial institutions were $85.6 trillion for over-the-counter (OTC) contracts and $3.8 trillion for exchange-traded contracts. The OTC contracts were further broken down into $73.8 trillion for single currency interest rate (IR) contracts, $10.6 trillion for foreign exchange (FX) contracts, and $0.9 trillion for credit derivatives contracts. The report also provided a breakdown by currency, counterparty, and remaining maturity, offering a comprehensive overview of the derivatives market in Japan as of mid-2025.
- https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/bis/deri/ - The Bank of Japan has been releasing triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in Japan since 1998. The survey collects data on turnover and amounts outstanding in the foreign exchange and derivatives markets, providing insights into market trends and developments. The most recent survey, conducted in April 2025, involved more than 1,100 financial institutions across 52 jurisdictions. Preliminary results for turnover were published in September 2025, with final results expected in December 2025. The survey is a collaborative effort with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which aggregates the results from Japan and other countries to release global findings.
- https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx25_announcement.htm - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) announced the launch of its 14th Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets on 1 April 2025. The survey aims to collect data from more than 1,100 financial institutions across 52 reporting jurisdictions. Data on turnover in foreign exchange and OTC interest rate derivatives markets, as well as FX settlement, were collected in April 2025. Data on the outstanding notional amounts and gross market values of various OTC derivatives were collected at the end of June 2025. Preliminary results for turnover were published in September 2025, with final results expected in December 2025.
- https://www.isda.org/2024/04/15/isda-survey-japans-derivatives-market-set-for-expansion/ - A survey conducted by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) revealed that Tokyo and Singapore are expected to be the top locations for derivatives trading in the Asia-Pacific region over the next three to five years. Nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate that a shift to higher interest rates will drive increased interest rate derivatives activity and risk management in Japan. Additionally, close to half believe Japan’s share of global foreign exchange derivatives trading will increase due to government debt levels, economic activity, and currency volatility. The survey highlights the growing importance of derivatives in Japan's financial markets.
- https://www.risk.net/insight/markets/7960728/yen-rise-spurs-japanese-rates-market-surge - Following the Bank of Japan's adjustments to its monetary policy, the yen rate-swap market has experienced unprecedented activity. Since March 2024, the notional amount of Japanese yen interest rate swaps cleared by the Japan Securities Clearing Corporation (JSCC) has surged, setting record highs for five consecutive months. In December 2024, the monthly clearing volume reached JPY1,060 trillion ($6.7 trillion), more than a tenfold increase from JPY82 trillion in December 2020. This surge in activity is attributed to increased participation from US, European, and Asian dealers and clients, despite regulatory restrictions on US clients clearing yen rate swaps through JSCC.
- https://professionalbanking-wealthmanagement.bnpparibas.com/en/insights/market-strategy/currencies-focus-june-2025.html - In June 2025, core inflation in Japan continued to rise, reaching 3.6% year-on-year, driven by increasing food prices. Inflation expectations and underlying inflation have accelerated beyond the Bank of Japan's expectations. The unemployment rate increased slightly to 2.5%. Business surveys indicated a weak manufacturing PMI at 49, while the services PMI remained in expansionary territory at 51. The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.5% in May and is anticipated to resume rate hikes in October 2025, given that downside risks to growth and inflation have eased. The yen is expected to benefit from anticipated repatriation and reallocation of funds out of US assets.
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first emerged. We've since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score: 10
Notes: The narrative is based on the Bank of Japan's official release of the Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity at end-June 2025, published on September 10, 2025. This is the first publication of these statistics, ensuring high freshness. (bis.org)
Quotes check
Score: 10
Notes: The narrative does not contain any direct quotes, indicating originality and exclusivity.
Source reliability
Score: 10
Notes: The narrative originates from the Bank of Japan, a reputable and authoritative source in financial statistics, ensuring high reliability.
Plausability check
Score: 10
Notes: The claims are consistent with the Bank of Japan's official data release and align with known market trends, indicating high plausibility.
Overall assessment
Veredict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary: The narrative is based on the Bank of Japan's official release of the Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity at end-June 2025, published on September 10, 2025. This is the first publication of these statistics, ensuring high freshness. (bis.org) The narrative does not contain any direct quotes, indicating originality and exclusivity. The source is the Bank of Japan, a reputable and authoritative entity, ensuring high reliability. The claims are consistent with the Bank of Japan's official data release and align with known market trends, indicating high plausibility. Therefore, the overall assessment is a PASS with high confidence.